In a nutshell? People are sheep and even sheep have to sleep sometime but never fear, they will wake and when they do...
Yahtzee!!!
Market trends develop, over time, in long, graceful, arcs. People, on the other hand, tend to respond...predictably...like lemmings and in knee-jerk fashion. The two easiest things to evoke, in order, are fear and anger; were that not true, politics wouldn't be the moral equivalent of what dots grazing pastures. That manifests as the seemingly precipitous rises and falls in EVERY market, over time. Drawing conclusions, based on short term, narrowly-focused (i.e. samples that are too small), observations can lead to some...shall we say...inaccuracies. By the measure put forth in the early part of this thread, one could "logically" conclude that, since real estate prices collapsed circa 2008, that we're all done with housing...or that, since gasoline fell from the $5 threshold to under $1 a few short weeks ago, that it's all over for gasoline and the oil industry as well. New Groms were commanding close to $5K a coupl'a years ago but have finally dropped down to the $3K MSRP. Does that mean that they've had their run, become unwanted/obsolete and the party's over? Or, has supply has been ramped-up and met demand...eliminating the sometimes extortionate premiums the early adopters were willing to pay? For that matter, what about the impact of lower fuel prices? Suburban tank (SUV & big truck) sales have taken off recently...think that's gonna last long?
Could there possibly be any other factors in play? How about weather and the time of year? Does discretionary spending typically peak around tax deadline time? Are specialty vehicles, bikes in particular, somewhat seasonal? Is everyone equally adept at marketing and creating effective ads? What about the sometimes chilling effect of overpriced polished turds? How about simple co-inkydink?:34:
I've been around long enough to be in on the proverbial ground floor with just about any post WWII collectible, the oldest of which wouldn't have reached "antique/collectible" status until the early 1970s. At this late date, the small Honda market is clearly too well established...and represents two of the most successful bikes in history...for everyone to suddenly lose interest simultaneously. It's already convulsed between high & low...more than once. What makes anyone so sure that this is the last time. That'd break the mold. What other successful marque has suddenly died-off...Corvette, Mustang, Indian, H.D., Shelby, Vincent, Triumph...etc...etc?
Leap without really looking, at your own risk:30:
